Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Top 5 Baseball Players You Will Knowingly Overvalue On Fantasy Draft Day, For Whatever Reason

I still plan on posting for the last few, but lately I've been all kinds of lazy. I'm reading "Fantasyland" by Sam Walker, and I have my three big drafts this weekend, so I'm on a fantasy kick lately.

Ryan's Top 5:

1. David DeJesus, OF, KC Royals - OK, to be fair, I will knowingly overvalue every Royal, but I will almost certainly give DDJ too much credit. Here's my logic; he scored 100 runs last year for a mediocre-at-best offense, if the offense improves, his numbers will improve too, right? Sure they will, and I'll still take him too high; even if he scores 120, he ain't gettin' more than 60-70 RBI tops, unless this is Tony Pena's year.

2. Alex Gordon, 1B-3B, KC Royals - Alex Gordon could do 100-30-100 this year and still I will have overvalued him. Last year I took him in the 10th round, and this year I've got other people considering taking him to contend with. I honestly don't know what mistakes will be made come draft day, but taking Gordon too high will probably be one of them.

3. Ben Sheets, SP, Milwaukee Brewers - Good ol' Ben has started 63 games over the past three seasons, but 2004 continues to be the only season I ever look at: 34 starts, 237 IP, 264 K, 2.70 ERA. You've got to lock up that DL spot with a pitcher, it's imperative.

4. Josh Willingham, OF, FLA Marlins - I'm putting him on the list because I will at one point consider drafting him, guaranteed. The man is not that good at baseball. And he lost Miguel Cabrera being on base in front of him.

5. Scott Kazmir, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - Kazmir is Sheets-esque in his appeal to me; he always seems right on the cusp of posting Cy Young numbers, never mind the fact that his career WHIP is 1.39.

Tim's Top 5
Having drafted twice, I can get started on this now.
1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals - I kept telling myself, hey, he's out of RFK, he's going to be amazing. Then I looked at his numbers and said -- crap, he's out of RFK -- but I already have him twice. I still like him more than most 3B, but he's not likely to put up much in the way of numbers that I couldn't get from Hank Blalock in Round 18.

2. Brandon Lyon, RP, Diamondbacks - I know that he's nominally the closer, but has anyone ever seemed more likely to lose a job as a closer for a good team? Except Ryan Dempster?

3. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals - I drafted him. Admittedly, it was Round 21 in a champions league, but so few rookies ever make an impact that I can't believe I picked him -- though I dumped him shortly thereafter. For the record, I replaced him with Jay Bruce, who I will replace with Cameron Maybin when Dusty Baker sends Jay Bruce to the minors. I have a mancrush on rookie center fielders.

4. Carl Crawford, OF, Rays - I drafted him in the second round of a 8-team draft. I'm still not sure why, considering he brings little more in the stolen base category than Shane Victorino, little more average, runs, and home runs than Shane Victorino, and I thought Shane Victorino was a lousy pick way down in the draft. But oh well, Victorino's never been that much of a base thief. But I still remember when he was an ill-advised first round pick for others, and apparently can't wait to embrace him on my team. Or I was just high on stolen bases, having landed Jose Reyes in round 1 and mistakenly believing I was in a roto league.

5. Joe Borowski, RP, Indians - Ok, I will grant that he will probably get 35 or more saves. But the same thing can be said for everyone but Matt Capps. So I don't need to pounce on him every draft just because other people say "ERA of 81.00 and WHIP of 27.00, no thanks." But I seem to recall him being on my fantasy championship team when I won in my first ever league, and he was on all my teams last year, so I associate Joe Borowski with winning the same way I associate Jose Mesa with the slaughter of innocents.

Honorable mention: Billy Butler - seriously, he hit 8 HR, I'm not sure what I have mistaken him for; Austin Kearns - except I know he doesn't have value; Joey Votto - I hate Dusty Baker.

Dan's Top 5:

This list shows that I really don't know baseball.

1. Vernon Wells - Ever since I had him in 2003 (I think) and gave him the nickname "Vern the Burn" I've probably overvalued Vernon Wells. I mean potential-first-round-pick overvalued.

2. Justin Upton - He's an Upton, and I may get him confused with B. J.. So there's a high chance that I'll overvalue him out of sheer mistaken identity.

3. Prince Fielder - I know I should learn, from the Vernon Wells effect, that his outstanding performance last year won't translate to this year. But I don't learn from fantasy baseball. Ever.

4. Mark Prior - Maybe he won't get injured this year. Just maybe. Now that he's off the Cubs, I'll begin to hate him, though, and probably won't draft him.

5. Jake Peavy - There's no way he's that good again. But I'm probably drafting him like he will be.

1 comment:

Roughly Speaking... said...

I couldn't agree more with me from five months ago. Those guys are pretty much responsible for ruining my entire fantasy season this year. I just didn't realize Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, and Justin Verlander would also be joining them on the list.