Saturday, August 11, 2007

Top 5 Fantasy Football Draft Picks for 2007

My first draft of the year is tomorrow, I'm picking 2nd, which is a lousy spot to be picking as far as I'm concerned. One spot higher or 8 spots lower, fine, I get the double picks, but picking second leaves me a second-tier running back with serious flaws (like possibly not playing -- LJ, you dirty Paterno-loving douchebag) and no hope of getting a particularly good player on the wraparound in round 2. While there may be a football league involving all four of us, I figure the secrecy can be blown for the top 5 picks, which involve little suspense and no strategy, since all the players would be gone by pick #13 anyway, so you'll not be stashing players for Round 2.

Tim's Top 5:
1. LaDanian Tomlinson - He would have led my team in passing TDs after McNabb's injury if he'd been on my team. Then again, if he'd been on my team, I wouldn't have fallen from first to out of the playoffs after McNabb's injury (thanks, Jeff Garcia/Alex Smith). He is the second best receiver on his team, he has a good offensive line, he's durable, he's got an adequate QB who won't turn the ball over, costing him TDs. He has everything Larry Johnson doesn't have, and he has LT money...which LJ wants.

2. Steven Jackson - He has the receiving yards to cushion the blow of a bad rushing outing, but he doesn't have a great nose for the end zone (16 total TDs, 13 rushing), and this year there'll be another goal line option in Brian Leonard. Still, he's a producer with 2,000+ yards and ... lord, the second pick sucks. I might end up taking #3.

3. Peyton Manning - So long as Yahoo! counts passing TDs as 6 points, then I can consider Manning a more useful player than most. Last year was not his best year since he was missing the third receiver in Stokley, but this year he has Anthony Gonzalez, who I'm a big fan of, Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and a more solidified running back situation with Addai. The downside is there's no depth, so if Addai gets hurt, I'm on the short list of players the Colts can add. You can say that's ridiculous, but if you say I'm no DeDe Dorsey or Kenton Keith, you're only right in that my name is not alliterative.

4. Shaun Alexander - Wow, he got old in a hurry. He was hurt, but that wasn't the whole story behind the drop of 2.5 yards per carry and 20 TDs. That said, I think it was a substantial part of the story and Rob Sims has a year of experience replacing Steve Hutchinson under his belt now. The entire offense was out of sync with Hasselbeck and Alexander missing time (leading me to at one point start Seneca Wallace in all four fantasy leagues due to byes/injuries to Hasselbeck), so I think he's due for a resurgence, even if it's only to about 13-15 TDs, rather than 28. He's got someone behind him, which makes him a better bet than Rudi Johnson, who will be beaten down after two weeks of having to carry the entire load.

5. Frank Gore - It's truly an inconvenient truth that he's floated this high on a list, because I don't have any confidence in his success, not with the way Mike Nolan used Michael Robinson as a greed running back to snatch up the TDs. But I really don't like Larry Johnson's timing with his me moment, I don't like the Chiefs' quarterback situation, I don't like Larry Johnson running with a line that has no Will Shields, and I really do like Priest Holmes' re-emergence, mostly because I hate Larry Johnson and his involvement with Penn State. All these things spell gloom and doom, so I think there's a chance that even with Mike Nolan ruining Gore's fantasy value by using Michael Robinson whenever I'm not on a bye week and desperate enough to play him, that Gore will win out.

Almost making it: Larry Johnson still can't fall that far, because if he plays, he's the Chiefs' entire offense. But that might not be saying much. Rudi Johnson is reliable, though not as reliable as I thought last year when I got him at pick #10 and was still sorely disappointed. But this year's a different fantasy landscape...extremely bleak and foreboding.

Ryan's Top Five

Larry Johnson scares me, as well, and he doesn't have LT money because he doesn't deserve LT money (rare that I agree with Carl Petersen). LJ can't block worth shit and can't catch and run very well either. He can run like a tank, sure, maybe better than anyone in the league, but so can a tandem of Addai/Rhodes lead to a Super Bowl victory. I know that by saying the following I A) illustrate my Chiefs bias and B) jinx his future career, but I really like rookie Kolby Smith, not as a future pro bowler but as a solid fill-in. Anyway, that's irrelevant, regarding fantasy sports.

1.) LaDainian Tomlinson - I think I speak for everyone here when I say I was shocked he wasn't the most "Now" on sportscenter. (Thank God it's over.)

2.) Steven Jackson - The Rams screwed me over when I drafted Kurt Warner the year the wheels fell off, and plus I just inherently hate St. Louis and everything it stands for. That said, I have to be a believer in their offense, as I have Marc Bulger in a pay league. Let's hope he throws a lot of TDs to SJ.

3.) Larry Johnson - Carl Petersen will act cool up until the start of season and then realize how desperately we need LJ, the same thing happened with Tony Gonzalez five years ago. The Chiefs offensive numbers will definitely come down, but when we do score touchdowns, they will be Larry's.

4.) Peyton Manning - Ugh, I don't want to be anywhere near the Top 5 if I don't have first pick. I've never drafted a QB in the first round, but you really can't justify putting any running back ahead of him in this spot.

5.) Larry Fitzgerald - This pick makes no sense. I just want to go out on a limb and guess that this is his first stellar year. Plus, like Tim, I don't like Frank Gore. If I'm right, I'll look like a genius.

Dan's Top 5:

1. Alex Rodriguez - I'm glad that I'm most likely going to see A-Rod break the career home run record within a few years. Obviously last year's A-Rod is gone and the old powerhouse is back.

2. Jose Reyes - I foolishly hadn't heard too much about him until this year, when it was revealed to me that he was the new best shortstop in baseball. So long, whoever it was before... Derek Jeter? All my money is on Reyes now.

3. Ichiro Suzuki - I was shocked at his new contract, but then I looked at what he's actually been doing this year. That shocked me even more.

4. Johan Santana - I know, I know... batters before pitchers. But this guy can just flat-out get it done on the mound, and if I can get him on my team, I won't have to worry about another SP for quite a few rounds.

5. Albert Pujols - Normally I like young talent (like A-Rod), but since Pujols is a Cardinal, I naturally hate him. I can't deny him a spot on my team, though, if he's still available by the time my pick comes up.

Oh shit, "football." My bad. I'm sticking with this top 5, though. I hate the NFL and can make no performance predictions. My draft is going to look worse than a public opinion poll of Michael Vick and Pacman Jones combined.

1 comment:

Vulpes Ryanis said...

Take out Ichiro Suzuki, move Pujols up to first (I will gladly draft him fifth based on this "down year"), and throw in (in all seriousness) Ryan Braun. Here's how Ryan Braun's stats project in a full 162-game season:

AVG: .346
R: 129
RBI: 141
HR: 53
SB: 24
OBP: .390

These are Pujols-type rookie numbers. Actually they're ever so slightly better, I believe.